Prepared To Rise?
Last November, China Central TV broadcasted a documentary TV series titled The Rise of the Great Powers.
The scale and altitude of the series caused discussions domestically, and also raised interests and attentions abroad. According to a common belief, Chinese government doesn’t speak straight, though what they say might convey some crucial messages. Every bland official statement could imply some political climate changes. The documentary is a solid work on its own, and some speculate it might have more profound meanings.
The Rise of the Great Powers consists of 12 episodes, totaling 600 minutes. It narrated 9 countries that achieved global influence in the past 5 centuries, which were Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, and the United States. It analyzed the reasons why they rose, and, in some cases, the reasons why they fell as well.
The scope and the title of the series naturally reminded me of Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Fortunately, the author himself was interviewed in the documentary, among other historians, economists, and politicians around the world.
The 12 episodes were organized in this way: the series spent one episode on Portugal and Spain, assumedly because the 2 countries dominated the world in roughly the same period, rose and fell for similar reasons. The Netherlands, France, Germany, and Japan each took one episode. Britain, Russia, and the United States took 2 episodes each. And the last episode was for conclusions.
It’s not surprising that some countries concern the Chinese more than the other. Britain started the Industrial Revolution and it was the first nation that entered modern society. Russia was a superpower. It imprinted sentimental memories in Chinese people and left some legacies. The United States is undisputedly the only superpower today.
In the last episode, it attempted to list some widely acknowledged approaches to modernization, including: the unification of the nation, effective exercise of state’s power, peaceful international environment, the rule of law, democracy, technology innovation and system innovation. It stressed that mankind’s future relies on cooperation rather than confrontation, echoing the “Peaceful Rise” slogan China recently introduced to international community. Its perspective also hinted how the Chinese typically view history, which is, the rise and fall of great dynasties and nations are natural progress when putting in the purview of thousands years of history, and the game should be played patiently and foresightedly.
The principles could be considered long term strategies, and they may serve some very practical reasons just as well. Making the unification as a base of a nation’s rise might be rooted in the concerns of Taiwan’s potential troublesome situation. Stressing on regional cooperation reflected China’s diplomatic efforts to develop free trades with its Asian neighbors.
Its praise toward democracy will please the world, but Western audience could also easily identify some ideas that differ from Western thought. The series argued that Germany, Japan, and Russia took a different path to industrialization than other developed countries. They were backward nations and archived industrialization in a much faster speed by utilizing the power of the state. The argument justified China’s policy. Chinese government takes more responsibilities in economic activities in the current early stage of modernization than some other nations do. This contradicts orthodox free market theory firmly hold by Western economists who advocate privatization and less government controls. In some respects, however, what China does is not really new and has been proved effective in history. China’s policy of using gigantic government projects to stimulate demand-and-supply cycle might have been copied exactly from Roosevelt’s “the New Deal”.
Does the series over-simplify the process of human development? If the path to modernization is so clear, why most of the world still live in poverty? The series obviously recognized the challenge. It actually emphasized that the way to prosperity doesn’t have a clear answer nor does it have a single universal answer to every country. It’s still waiting for every one of us to explore.
The Rise of the Great Powers in general is welcomed by both Chinese audience and the outside world. Chinese people in the time are very receptive to new ideas. This series promotes a more confident, open-minded and cooperative attitude to the world. This could be definitely considered a good sign. It also has special meanings in the present time because the international community is calling China to play a more responsible and constructive role in world affairs. It’s unrealistic to talk about China as a great power but it’s time for the Chinese to start thinking about their roles and their affects in the world.
